Gloom and Doom (rev 9/3/2023)

 

In my previous essay titled "He Who Pays the Piper," I discussed how the various individuals/groups spin their narrative to obtain funding regardless of empirical reality. My concluding example involved global warming. I pointed out that even a cursory examination of the available data indicated that this was not part of any natural cycle. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are equivalent to 60 times volcanic CO2 emissions resulting in a rapid CO2 buildup of 136 ppm (284 ppm 1850 versus over 420 ppm current) which far exceeds the 98 ppm increase from the low (186 ppm) during the last ice age (21,500 years ago) to the preindustrial (1850) high of around 284 ppm. This equates to a 0.44 ppm/100 years rate of increase. In the previous essay, I used a different cycle to get a more robust rate of increase of 0.8 ppm/100 year rate of increase. The current rate of increase is 118 ppm/100 years and climbing, which means that we are accumulating CO2 148 times faster that the 0.8/100 year rate, and 268 times faster than the 0.44 ppm /100 years rate. Obviously, this is not a "natural" cycle rate of increase. (see http://www.co2 levels .org/ ) I also indicated that temperature data lagged behind the greenhouse gas buildup, therefore, the rate of increase was "only" 56 times that of the natural cycles, but increasing as the CO2 accumulation rapidly increases, worthless treaties notwithstanding. 

In the previous essay, I also indicated that real global warming is being used as a pretext to institute changes that are designed to enhance elite social control yet do little, if anything, to actually reduce carbon emissions. Barring nuclear war (a very real possibility), I predicted a 2 degree above preindustrial by 2050, increasing to 5 to 6 degrees C by the end of the century based upon current greenhouse gas levels and likely increases. For those that hope for some sort of rapid reduction in greenhouse gas levels, I have some bad news. While humans have the capability to rapidly increase greenhouse gas levels by burning fossil fuels, there does not exist nor is there likely to exist in the foreseeable future the ability to eliminate massive quantities of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Realistically, the best we can count on is the natural reduction of greenhouse gases which appears to take longer that the natural buildup of the gases during the climate cycles. This rate varies, however, the maximum from the last cycle appears to be about 0.5 ppm/100 years. If we assume that CO2 will continue to accumulate to at least 450 ppm, then the natural reduction to preindustrial 280 ppm will take at least 34,000 years minimum. We appear to be locked in to a global climate catastrophe caused, essentially, by elite power seeking without regard to the broader consequences of their actions. One would have thought that with massive fossil fuel consumption the consequences of emitting millions of years of sequestered carbon into the atmosphere in about 150 years would have been considered. Additionally, globalization is all about global social control and power at the expense of local autonomy and local survivability. Yet, the power-seeking psychopaths who rule us are much less concerned about the long term survivability of the species than in short term power dynamics. And while the global warming deniers claim that the elites are trying to frighten the populace into making ill advised changes (true enough), the reality is that the elites are promoting unrealistic hope for solving the climate crisis. Unfortunately, I have concluded that little can be done to mitigate the consequences of the current level of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and that little significant action to curb emissions will be undertaken in any event. The elite agenda appears to be to restructure global society in such a way as to safeguard elite interests in the new era.

Before I offer some concluding comments regarding the implications of all of this, I need to rant in regards to the complete lack of intellectual integrity of the anthropogenic global warming deniers. I became aware of websites such as the Corbett Report, Off Guardian and UK Column during the initial phase of the COVID- 19 psyops. They seemed at the time to be relative voices of sanity in a sea of MSM BS. Now that we have entered increased awareness of the consequences of climate change, they have all revealed themselves to be global warming deniers, primarily, I suspect, due to profound ideological bias. Off Guardian published an article on 8/8/2023 by Iain Davis which is all too typical of this contrarian garbage. Allow me to quote: "Noel Coward wrote the song “Mad Dogs and Englishmen,” advising people to avoid sweltering midday temperatures, in 1931. It went down well because it was funny and something people could relate to. Probably because the 1930s was the hottest decade of the 20th century." (Iain Davis) https://off-guardian.org/2023/08/08/the-infuriating-climate-alarm/

The 1930s was the hottest decade of the 20th century? Davis links to an article in Watts Up With That, a denier website, by author Professor Patick Michaels, a professional climate skeptic funded by the fossil fuel industry. The article indicated that the write up is 11 years old. Another quote: HEADLINE: "Newly found weather records show 1930's as being far worse than the present for extreme weather" ARTICLE: "Sure is hot out! And what better time for a paper to appear in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology describing the construction of the “all-time” records for various types of weather extremes for each of the 50 United States plus Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands." (Patrick Michaels) https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/14/newly-found-weather-records-show-1930s-as-being-far-worse-than-the-present-for-extreme-weather/     

Putting aside the veracity of the article, note that Iain Davis has grossly misrepresented some sort of study dealing with "each of the 50 United States plus Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands." , implying that the 1930s were the hottest decade of the 20th century globally. The article was in response to reportage of extreme temperatures in Europe and Davis disingenuously ties the 1930s decade with a Noel Coward song implying how hot it was in England in the 1930s. This is a profoundly dishonest piece of anti-global warming propaganda. If we go to https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt , we can easily determine for ourselves that the 1930s had a temperature anomaly of (11.5) in 0.01 degrees celcius versus the base period of 1951-1980. In other words, 0.115 degrees C cooler than the average for 1951-1980. Hottest decade? Try 1990-1999, the last decade of the 20th century which saw an ever increasing temperature far in excess historical cycles. If we do, we'll see that the average anomaly for the decade was 38.5, or 0.385 degrees C warmer than baseline and 0.50 degrees C warmer than the 1930s. This equates to a 0.833 increase/100 years, about 28x the historical average. This is less than the 56x times non-anthropogenic  rate I show in my previous essay because we are dealing with an earlier time frame with less greenhouse gas buildup. Comparing 1990-1999 with 2010-2019, we get a 0.42 degree C increase over a scant 20 years which equates to 2.10 degrees/100, a whopping 70x versus historical. As I indicated previously, the sharp increase in greenhouse gas accumulation is far ahead of the theoretical equilibrium temperature and is causing increasingly rapid temperature increases. You don't have to be a scientist to see where this is heading, and you have to be an ideologue or desperate for funding to deny that it is happening. As previously noted, we have entered a transition period where ideology and opportunism shape the discourse, and where intellectual integrity seems a luxury. 

Let me conclude by noting that the high point of most previous natural cycles had a temperature anomaly exceeding our current one. That won't last for long. The current rate of temperature increase is so far in excess of previous cycles that the equilibrium temperature in regards to the greenhouse gas accumulation must be well above our current temperature. Since the growing greenhouse gas accumulation will be with us for a long time to come, we and future generations can look forward to rapidly rising temps for centuries to come. This rapid and sustained temperature increase following the natural increase at the end of the last ice age may result in the complete melting of all glaciers and sea ice. Humans have initiated a process which we are now more or less powerless to stop which will result in a totally new climate regime, one unable to support the conditions of civilized life, or possibly much of any life for that matter. We are headed for dark times with no obvious solution.